Quick update - 12/22/16

The brutal Arctic air finally retreated this week.  The coldest reading I saw in Kansas during the cold spell was -27 (yes that is 27 degrees below zero) and that was NOT a wind chill reading.  Many locations observed 18 to 22 below zero.  But now, all that brutal cold air has sloshed back into Eurasia and Siberia, much like it was in November!  I'm betting it will return again this winter!

Here were the current temperatures:




































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In the posts I've done over the past 2 to 3 weeks I discussed two systems for the current period.  The first I thought might move out into the plains around the 22nd, or that would be today.  Indeed there is a system poised to head this way.  It will be weakening as it does move out late tonight and Friday, but it should be strong enough (despite really dry surface air and unfavorable surface conditions) to produce a little rain or light wintry mix later today into early Friday.  It shouldn't be a big deal.

You can see this system on the satellite image:

click for a larger version






































In the past 2 to 3 weeks I had also "hinted" at a storm around Christmas.  Well, it does appear that there will be a storm!  But, with the retreat of the Arctic air, any white Christmas snow will end up in the Dakotas!  Such is life in the plains.

In the satellite image, the "developing" system (not yet a storm) is denoted by the blue "M"...

click for a larger version

This developing system (M) should become a vigorous storm as it moves into the western U.S. but it appears that it will move too far north to bring any wintry precipitation to the high plains of Kansas.  BUT, it will likely bring a threat of thunderstorms, at least to eastern Kansas, much of Oklahoma and central and north Texas on Christmas Day!   In the post I did on October 28, I said "I would think the threat of tornadoes across the deep south and perhaps up the Lower Mississippi Valley would surely be higher than normal.  Maybe into Oklahoma and eastern KS?".  

Well, we'll see what happens!

Hopefully the storm will be strong enough to bring at least a brief period of rain or showers to part of the high plains.  I just don't know how far west at this point since the storm has not even developed yet.

Here is the Storm Prediction Centers outlook for severe storms for Christmas Day:

Since I'm headed for surgery, I may not be able to update this blog for a while.

Merry Christmas everyone!