This has been a really tough pattern to nail down. There has been so much cold and snow across Eurasia and Sibera. I mentioned in the previous post that eventually that cold would slosh back to our side of the hemisphere. That is starting to happen, which I will discuss below.
In the previous post I said "The one for the end of the weekend is ALSO on schedule but it looks like mostly wind as it will follow suite and track too far north. There are other possibilities by Tuesday and Wednesday. There has to be some development in the flow aloft to bring any threat and I will discuss the possible development below.".
The storm for the end of the Thanksgiving weekend was right on schedule and for the high plains, unfortunately, it did bring mostly wind (and a lot of it)! There was some light rain but it did virtually no good as it warmed up and got very windy by the end of the day Sunday. This is NOT a good trend and something I'm watching very carefully!
The other possibility I discussed (Tue/Wed) also was on schedule but brought very little again to the plains. There was very heavy snow across the Dakota's and sadly killer tornadoes across the southern U.S..
It is very discouraging to have so many systems this past 2 weeks come through with very little in the way of precipitation and so much wind. Plus, no really cold air, at least yet.
So now what?
I ended the November 23 post with "Active and sometimes stormy weather should be expected for the first 1 to 2 weeks of December. " and that still looks on track. The pattern is starting to show signs of repeating from where it developed. That is to say there should be some amplified systems during this next couple of weeks.
BUT....
Looking at the latest satellite image...
click for a larger map
The red X over eastern South Dakota is too far north to give the high plains any precipitation and it was moving away. More importantly was the big blue H over central Canada. It has blocked any storm from moving through but actually is in a position to allow cold air to spill into the states. The only problem is there is very little cold air, yet!
The red X near northern Washington is our next weather maker. But there is a huge problem! Because of the blocking across Canada and ridging across the northern Pacific, it looks like this system will drop due south and perhaps all the way into southwest Texas and then turn due east! That is too far west and south for the plains to benefit! This would bring heavy rains to central and eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley by the end of the weekend leaving much of the high plains high-and-dry! Confidence in this is reasonably high in that scenario but there is still a very small outside chance the system wouldn't drop that far south.
It also depends on any upstream storm that could "dig" into the west kicking the first system out sooner. There was at least one system that could do it (not shown on the map). Also that particular storm has a very small chance of developing enough to bring some precipitation to the plains about Tuesday or Wednesday. Don't count on it, regardless of what you might see from some outlets.
The upshot is I have extremely low confidence and unfortunately at this point have a very pessimistic outlook for any of these systems benefiting the high plains.
The Weather Prediction Center from the National Weather Service offers the following possibility for moisture during the next 7 days.
At this point, the only advice I can give is to not expect much across the high plains during the next week to 10 days. But there is a small chance; just hope and pray. The cold air that is sloshing over into our side of the hemisphere is already impacting Alaska and northwest Canada with some brutally temperatures. Eventually (maybe by December 10-12) this will cut lose into the central part of the U.S., at least for a brief visit.
I hope to be able to update this blog by Sunday, so stay tuned.
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