The major changes going on include the upper flow becoming west/northwest and minor disturbances rotating through the flow. Typically with WNW flow aloft in late June and early July, the opportunity for nightly MCS's (Mesoscale Convective Systems) increases. This has been the case during the past few days, and will continue into the first of next week.
Here is the latest satellite image:
The red X over southern California will likely become a HUGE weather maker by the end of the week. It will likely get caught up in the flow and head towards the plains. It has tropical origins and given the overall pattern aloft and ample low level moisture, copious amounts of rainfall from thunderstorms (some severe) will become a real possibility, within an widespread area!
Here is the outlook for rainfall through next Monday, from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC):
This will represent an average amount (at least a strong possibility). Some areas will get less, some areas more. The "mores" will likely see flooding issues. One of the long range computer forecast models I look at has even more robust amounts for western Kansas.Again, I just won't have much time to update this blog but will try the best I can.
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