It's been a very disappointing weather regime so far this spring. Under ideal and even "normal" spring conditions, these weather systems that have brought "weather" to parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri and points east (and even far eastern KS) would have brought many rounds of spring storms to all of Kansas. As it stands, it appears the flow aloft has just been too strong and too far north and with bad timing. Boundary layer moisture has not had a chance to move far enough west to be lifted by these systems. Early in the Spring the moisture was even too limited across Texas and the deep south due to persistent cold fronts during the winter.
Now that early May has arrived, at least the gulf moisture has been more robust and farther west and north. What this means is that with time, moisture will be utilized by the weather systems moving in from the west so that precipitation opportunities will be increasing. Granted it is likely too late for much of the winter wheat, especially in the hardest hit areas of the drought. All the very long range forecast models (U.S. and abroad) have been persistently indicating above normal precipitation for May. It is bothersome that scenario has not been realized yet. Each passing day that nothing materializes leads to less and less confidence. But at least the cycle is there...it's just a matter of time!
Not only has the dryness increased across much of the area bringing the demise to much of the wheat crop, but now we'll have to worry about another freeze! As has been expected since late winter, this next cold outbreak is right on time. This next week (May 12-17) will see low temperatures well into the 30s and with any clearing and decreasing winds, there is a chance the mercury will fall into the upper 20s across at least far northwest Kansas.
Update on the drought. The latest is the drought assessment for plains updated on April 29, 2014.
...and for Kansas...
Speaking of the optimistic long range models. The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) from NOAA has the following forecast (just one model run) for the period of May into early June. Needless to say...WET!
If this verified, almost the entire corn belt would be very wet! And, wet across most of Kansas! Again, these models have been very persistent with these wet outlooks but it just hasn't started yet. I'm still staying optimistic that things will turn around.
Finally, as I pointed out in the mid April post, all major droughts have been "busted" by developing El Nino conditions. An El Nino has been expected to develop, but so far it has been a VERY slow process with some thought that it might not happen! The following is an updated plot from April of the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index). We want to see negative values! It is slowly trending that way, at least (look at the 90 day or green line).
The outlook is for the El Nino to continue to develop, and with high confidence of that happening. The big question is just how strong it might get and for how long. I wouldn't be too suprised to see just a weak/moderate Nino and wouldn't persist too long given the state of the atmosphere and climate. But at least it would increase the opportunity for above normal precipitation later in the summer and into the winter and next spring/summer.
I hope to update this again before the end of May.
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