This crazy weather that went from a significant drought to significant wetness (for many) looks to continue off and on this summer. The upper-level flow this past 60 days has been unusual at times. For a while back in May winds aloft were anomalously week for the time of year and actually contributed to westward moving convection and can be attributed to some of the monstrous rainfall totals this past 45 days. There are rainfall observations of 15 to 20 inches since May 1 and I can find quite a few of those reports in the Texas Panhandle, east central Colorado, western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska. Of course, as is typical with convection, adjacent locations missed out on some of those bigger rains. There are locations that have had 5 to 6 times normal rainfall! Look at the map of percent of normal rainfall in the 60-day period ending 06/25!!
Of course, we should not expect these types of anomalies for the remainder of the summer. It's not a zero percent chance of that happening, but the atmosphere will likely not allow it. The upper air map from this morning shows a continued active pattern despite being late June.
The winds aloft are certainly weaker than they would be earlier in the year, but still strong enough to support occasional complexes of storms, similar to what moved across Nebraska and northern Kansas overnight (6/28). As long as the upper high across southwest Canada continues to dominate at that location, and the upper air high (currently over Arkansas and Louisiana) doesn't expand into the central part of the country and park there, then I believe there will be continued opportunities for more rain in July. I don't see much chance of a repeat of July 2022 when the spigot was shut off.
In the reports I send out through a subscription to Hutton Weather Futures, I have detailed and highlighted those periods/days of increased odds of rainfall for July and August. Conversely, decreased odds of any rainfall have been noted. Ideas of when the first fall freeze are shaping up and I've come up with odds on that. Won't you consider joining the growing number of folks that have been reaping the benefits of accurate long-range forecasting! Visit my website for additional details on how to sign up.
