Uncertainty is high and is the REAL cold weather too far away?

With the new weather pattern showing several different "clues", I'm getting closer to getting an understanding about the set up for this winter and what will carry into 2022.  I need another week to analyze the upper air pattern across the northern hemisphere.  There may be a big of indication that the repeating of features may be starting (or it may be another week to go).  I hesitate to make much of a prediction at this time. 

Back in late October I was seeing some forcing and subtle indications that a pattern change could occur during Thanksgiving week.  Of course that far out it timing down to a few days was impossible (or at least just throwing something against the wall to see if it would stick).  I had enough information, or at least a gut feeling, that the Thanksgiving week would be at least colder but with the possibility of an impactful storm at least within a days travel of central Kansas.  Computer forecast models this past week have been all over the place from very dry to a significant storm, but heavily leaning towards very dry. 

Looking at this mornings upper air chart....

 So far the upper air pattern has not been favorable for an significant and prolonged intrusion of cold air into the states.  There is a northern jet stream that has not "buckled" or amplified - yet.

There has been bitter cold air building across the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere since October, just waiting for an excuse to surge south into lower latitudes.  So far, it appears parts of Europe have been hit the hardest with there ALREADY being natural gas shortages.  That is NOT a good sign as I fear the same may eventually occur across the U.S. this winter.  I have been mentioning that December could be below normal on temperatures.  Yet, long range outlooks and computer forecast models have been indicating exactly the opposite.  Another indication of this buildup of very cold air can be gathered from just this headline (about the Arctic)...

And the cold persists....look at the temperatures as of this early Friday evening (19th)...

That's a pretty big area of below zero air!  So, when will it surge south and when it does will it move into the U.S., or will it travel into Siberia and Europe?  Unfortunately, I really don't have a feeling one way or another, at least for now.  Again, I need another 10 days or so to analyze this pattern.

A couple of things that have caught my eye though....one is the North Atlantic Oscillation has it has gone negative and is expected to bottom out significantly negative.

That would promote an amplification of the upper air which "could" lead to that intrusion south.  And at the same time the Arctic Oscillation index has been trending negative which would also promote a southward movement.

Even with much colder air for a few days around Thanksgiving, the "real" push of cold into the states (including the high plains) is looking more and more likely during late November or early December.  I hope to refine that thought in the next blog posting.

As far as precipitation, at this point, it's looking fairly scarce for the high plains.  I think any storm development around Thanksgiving may favor the southern high plains and into the Ark-la-tex region but check your local weather sources as we get closer to mid-week.  Or - I just might get a chance to update by then.

And to end this posting - I'm sure this map is no surprise to anyone...

Unfortunately this stretch of dry weather for the high plains is one of the parts of the pattern that will return during the winter, spring and into summer.

"Early Winter" will be making a retreat

The advertised cold that persisted this week is starting to retreat, as it should this time of the fall.  The lowest temperatures with this event fell into the middle 20s across many areas of high plains, with just about every location reaching at least freezing.  This morning (Thursday) the coldest reading I saw was 24 at several locations, but I'd bet there were colder temperatures in preferred lower lying areas.  The advertised precipitation this week fell as mainly liquid although there were occasional bursts of sleet and wet snow.  Here is a map of precipitation, which where it did fall was actually a bit higher than expected....

Now it appears the pattern will go back into the expected drier regime for the high plains, and initially much warmer.  There will be another cold front early next week but it won't be too cold, just not as warm.  Later in the week another cold shot will arrive and it should get as at least as cold as this weeks.  At this point there is NO indication of a wet storm through at least the first part of Thanksgiving week.

This mornings upper air chart...

The stage is starting to set up for a build up of very cold air across the higher latitudes of Siberia and higher latitudes of Europe.  It will likely be a while before that is unleashed into the lower latitudes.  There has been a strong hint of this happening around Thanksgiving but at this point it could occur across the eastern U.S., or even stay across the "other side".  Any precipitation of significant should stay way out west and also east of the high plains, at least until at least Thanksgiving week.  Of course, the pattern is still in the formative stage so a "surprise" pattern shift is still possible.   

As far as a winter outlook, I'm holding off just a bit longer to access the early stages of this new pattern. There are already forecasts in place by various sources but those are based on the fact that La Nina is in place.  As I'll show in the next posting, the average weather (both temps and precip) has been extremely variable in those La Nina winters.  More next time....

The outlook from the Weather Prediction Center through next Thursday....